The Uncomplicated Version
The cask market has shifted from the 2019 - 2022 hype to a buyer’s window, offering better pricing and more variety for new acquisitions.
While quick flips have cooled, the long-term case for cask ownership remains strong for those with a 10 to 15+ year horizon.
For hobbyists, the market is now more accessible and efficient, with lower entry costs for aged liquid and better bottling options.
In a market that has undergone a significant correction while navigating a flurry of reports outlining cases of financial loss and alleged fraud, one must ask: "Is this a good time to buy casks of whisky?"
For the purposes of this article, we will set aside our own motivations for selling casks, but we will lean on our industry knowledge to answer that question. Our conclusion is a resounding "yes, this is a great time to buy whisky,” but perhaps not for the reasons you might expect.
The Hangover of the Boom Years
If you purchased casks of Scotch between 2019 and 2022, there is a strong chance you are currently disappointed with your casks’ valuations. During that period, the market was booming, investors were liquid, cash was cheap, and casks were scarce.
The retail "whisky cask investment" market was essentially in its infancy. Headlines were dominated by stories of immense returns and rapid appreciation.
Headline of an article published by 'Vinepair' in 2021, attributing significant returns (original blog post here)
In retrospect, these stories fueled an overhyped market. At the time, however, there was ample evidence that whisky casks were a perennially "safe" bet. Now that we are in a down market, things naturally feel less rosy for those who entered during the peak.
Does this mean whisky casks are a poor purchase or that this is the wrong time to buy? We don’t believe so. In fact, this may be the best time in years to acquire the right casks for your portfolio.
A Market Rebalancing
The correction in the whisky cask market did not happen in isolation. Like many luxury collectibles, the consumer and collector markets saw a steep post-COVID decline. Distilleries had to react. The COVID-era boom led first to supply shortages, and subsequently to what is now viewed as overproduction. Consequently, distilleries are now releasing more casks into the private market. Great deals are more accessible, and there is an abundance of choice for collectors and investors alike.
This is an exciting window for newcomers, as well as for existing owners looking to "average down" their initial investments. Once the market rebalances, distilleries will likely cease selling to private owners, and limited supply will once again exert upward pressure on prices.
As noted in the report When will Scotch whisky recover? A data-driven view:
“Single malt still has some way to go after a very large boom in shipments in 2022 and 2023. We expect much of this remaining excess stock will be depleted in 2026 and this may see some small uptick in exports from the 2025 bottom of 9 million cases. We expect 2019 volumes to be re-achieved by 2028 as the cycle unwinds more slowly for this particular subcategory. On this basis, there are some reasons to be a little more cheerful as we move through 2026.”
The Case for Investment Caveats Included
Most of the logic from the "heyday" remains true, provided you include the necessary caveats:
Whisky appreciates as it ages
Caveat: This appreciation is rarely rapid or linear.
Cask investments have a "limited downside"
Caveat: While the underlying value of the liquid provides a floor, it does not guarantee a positive return or immediate liquidity.
Whisky casks appreciate at X% per annum
Caveat: That figure is a long-term annualised average. It is heavily dependent on the specific distillery and current market conditions.
While investing purely for financial gain may be less of a "home run" than previously promised, the market remains dynamic. Many factors point toward comfortable returns, especially if you map out an investment horizon of 10 to 15+ years. Many current owners are wondering if they will ever sell at a profit; the answer is likely yes, but now is the wrong time to sell. It is, however, the time to buy.
The Case for Collection
Setting aside financial returns, if you are a whisky lover, there has never been a better time to buy a cask as a hobby.
Before the boom, the market was inefficient. It was difficult to buy casks, bottle them, or even visit them. Only recently have a large percentage of warehouses begun allowing owners to view their holdings. Post-COVID, the market has matured to make the process easy. You now have a vast selection of ages, distilleries, and cask types, with abundant bottling and warehousing options.
Furthermore, prices have softened to the point where aged, ready-to-drink whisky is available at a significant discount compared to the early 2020s.
Conclusion
Whether you are a pure investor or a dedicated enthusiast, the whisky cask market is currently optimised for buyers. However, it remains vital to do your homework: understand the risks, verify the existence of the casks, and know your options as an owner.
Spirited was founded with these principles in mind. Our goal is to help clients build the knowledge base necessary to buy with confidence. We advise on every aspect of cask ownership, maintaining the relationships with stakeholders that ensure you feel protected and engaged with this rewarding asset.
We are here to help you determine if this is the right time for you to buy. If it is, we are here to help you do it properly.